tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay JFK departures

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for JFK departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for JFK departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from JFK midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 21 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.