Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 1:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for JFK departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 29%; calm-weather level 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 29% over 93 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?