Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 28%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:57 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for O'Hare departures 9 AM–noon Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 233 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 233 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 4:00 AM CST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 28%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 28%; calm-weather level 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 233 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 28% over 233 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?