tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ORD departures

Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 39%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:27 AM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for O'Hare departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 221 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 221 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 AM CST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 45%

    What changed: 56% → 45% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 221 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 221 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 6:00 AM CST · 7.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 13:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 39%, near normal

    What changed: 45% → 39%; calm-weather level 31%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 221 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Thursday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)39% over 221 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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