Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:27 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 50% delay risk for O'Hare departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 225 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 225 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 4:00 AM CST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 38%
What changed: 50% → 38% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 225 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Thursday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 38% over 225 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers O'Hare departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 38% → 31%; calm-weather level 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 225 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target ORD departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 225 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 6:00 AM CST · 4.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 13:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?