tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 89 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 116 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.1 over 116 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.