tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 66 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 45 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.3 over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 46 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.4 over 46 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.