Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 70% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 70% over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%
What changed: 70% → 61% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 113 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 14.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?