tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 15 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~14.5 over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 20 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

    What changed: about 15 → 20 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~19.7 over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 32 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

    What changed: about 20 → 32 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 32 of the 111 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~32.0 over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

    What changed: about 32 → 12 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 111 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~12.1 over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 11:00 PM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 04:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

    What changed: about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.5 over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

    What changed: about 11 → 12 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~11.6 over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

    What changed: about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.5 over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 AM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 10:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.