tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 84 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Developing Cancellation EWR departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

Current state
Developing
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View EWRFlights at EWR

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.2 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 1:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 06:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 7 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

    What changed: about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.2 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

    What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.0 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?