tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 61 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay EWR departures

Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 AM Friday to 26%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 11:58 PM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 AM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 AM Friday to 26%, near normal

    What changed: 41% → 26%; calm-weather level 13%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 AM Friday an average 26% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)26% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 11:00 PM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 04:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?