tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Developing Cancellation EWR departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.0 over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 11.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.7 over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 9:00 PM EST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 23 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    What changed: about 10 → 23 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~23.4 over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 10:00 PM EST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    What changed: about 23 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 97 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.7 over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 04:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 10 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    What changed: about 10 → 10 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.0 over 98 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 12:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    What changed: about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.2 over 98 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.8 over 98 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 08:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?