tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 60 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Developing Delay EWR departures

Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 58%

Current state
Developing
Started
Latest activity
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 60% delay risk for Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 85 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 21:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 58%

    What changed: 60% → 58% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 PM EST · 17.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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