tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Observed Major Developing Delay EWR arrivals

Newark arrival delays worsen: 89% late in the last hour

Current state
Developing
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Newark arrivals running late: 62% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 16 arrivals that landed between 12:31 PM and 1:31 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Newark arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window12:31 PM–1:31 PM EST
    Sample16 flights, 10 late (62%)
    Comparison23% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals
    Median delay19.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:31 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Observed

    Newark arrival delays ease: 55% late in the last hour, still above normal

    What changed: late share 62% → 55%

    Of 22 arrivals that landed between 2:09 PM and 3:09 PM EST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Newark arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window2:09 PM–3:09 PM EST
    Sample22 flights, 12 late (55%)
    Comparison23% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals
    Median delay19.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 20:09 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Observed

    Newark arrival delays worsen: 89% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 55% → 89%

    Of 19 arrivals that landed between 7:11 PM and 8:11 PM EST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Newark arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window7:11 PM–8:11 PM EST
    Sample19 flights, 17 late (89%)
    Comparison23% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals
    Median delay40.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:11 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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