tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories <1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 65 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 81%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Love Field departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 12:00 PM CST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 92%

    What changed: 68% → 92% since the 12:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)92% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 81%

    What changed: 92% → 81% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDAL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)81% over 37 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.