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Forecast Major Resolved Delay DAL departures

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 89%

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST
Latest activity: Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST

Model forecasts 72% delay risk for Love Field departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	DAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	72% over 25 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST · 6.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM CST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 2:56 PM CST (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST

Model raises Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 90%

What changed: 72% → 90% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	DAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	90% over 25 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST · 5.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM CST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 3:56 PM CST (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST

Model lowers Love Field departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 76%

What changed: 90% → 76% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	DAL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	76% over 26 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM CST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 5:57 PM CST (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST