tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay TPA departures

Model forecasts 78% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 78% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 15 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.