Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 55 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.3 over 55 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.4 over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.7 over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Tampa departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.6 over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.