tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay TPA departures

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Tampa departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Tampa departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 56%

    What changed: 49% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 71%

    What changed: 56% → 71% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 50 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.