tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation TPA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 39 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.1 over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 5 → 16 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 38 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~16.1 over 38 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Tampa departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 16 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 38 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~14.8 over 38 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.