Updated model now expects about 3 among Tampa departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Tampa departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 27 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.2 over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Tampa departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 27 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.7 over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 3 among Tampa departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 3 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 27 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.3 over 27 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?