Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 32%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Tampa departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 47 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Tampa departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 32%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 32%; calm-weather level 17%
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Tampa noon–3 PM Saturday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target TPA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 47 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?