Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 32%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 52%
What changed: 41% → 52% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 32%, near normal
What changed: 52% → 32%; calm-weather level 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 80 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?