Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 61%
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 51%
What changed: 41% → 51% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 37%
What changed: 51% → 37% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Saturday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 37% over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 61%
What changed: 37% → 61% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 62 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?