Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 48%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for SFO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM PST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 60%
What changed: 42% → 60% since the 9:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 48%
What changed: 60% → 48% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM PST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?