Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.2 over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.9 over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among SFO departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 11 → 39 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~38.6 over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?