tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant New Delay SFO departures

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from SFO midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 22 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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