Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 22 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.0 over 22 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures midnight–3 AM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.8 over 23 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?