Model raises expected cancellations to about 57 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 24 cancellations among SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 83 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~23.6 over 83 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 24 → 30 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 83 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~30.2 over 83 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM PST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 22:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 30 → 36 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~35.8 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 57 among SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday
What changed: about 36 → 57 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 57 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (69%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~56.6 over 82 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST · 0.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.