Model raises expected cancellations to about 66 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 18 cancellations among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~17.8 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 24 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
What changed: about 18 → 24 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~24.0 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM PST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 22:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
What changed: about 24 → 30 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~30.2 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 55 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
What changed: about 30 → 55 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 55 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (66%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~54.9 over 83 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST · 3.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 58 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
What changed: about 55 → 58 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 58 of the 82 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (71%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~58.2 over 82 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 66 among SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
What changed: about 58 → 66 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 66 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (78%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~66.4 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.