tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay SFO departures

Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 64%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 108 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST · 17.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts SFO departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 64%

    What changed: 45% → 64% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST · 6.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.