Model lowers expected cancellations to about 16 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 10 cancellations among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.3 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST · 11.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.9 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.8 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 12 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 108 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.6 over 108 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 35 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 12 → 35 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 35 of the 110 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~35.5 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 16 among SFO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 35 → 16 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 110 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SFO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.3 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM PST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.