Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 10 cancellations among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.7 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among National departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?