Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 19 cancellations among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.8 over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 25 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~25.5 over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 25 → 27 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (45%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~27.3 over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 27 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.4 over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.6 over 61 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 28 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 4 → 28 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 28 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~28.4 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 26 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 28 → 26 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~26.3 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 24 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 26 → 24 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 64 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~24.0 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among National departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 24 → 27 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 63 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~27.2 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.