Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 47 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.0 over 47 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 18 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.3 over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 22 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 18 → 22 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~22.2 over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 22 → 7 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.1 over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.8 over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among National departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 48 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.7 over 48 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?