tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 87 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 68 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 56%

    What changed: 49% → 56% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 67 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.