Updated model puts National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 56%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday at 56%
What changed: 42% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?