Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 85 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.7 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.7 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 38 among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 10 → 38 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (45%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~38.2 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 38 → 12 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.5 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 12 → 5 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.4 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 39 among National departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 39 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 39 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~39.3 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.