tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 78 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation DCA departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among National departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among National departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.9 over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among National departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 29 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.3 over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.