Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 87%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 14:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%
What changed: 43% → 55% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 54%
What changed: 55% → 54% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 87%
What changed: 54% → 87% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 87% over 79 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.