tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model lowers National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 68%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM EST · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 82%

    What changed: 46% → 82% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)82% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 68%

    What changed: 82% → 68% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.