tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 78 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation DCA departures

Model expects about 24 cancellations among National departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 24 cancellations among National departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 24 of the 79 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~24.3 over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.