tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation LAX departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 115 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.2 over 115 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 10 among LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 116 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.7 over 116 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among LAX departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 117 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~15.7 over 117 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.