tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 83 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant New Delay AUS departures

Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Austin departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Sunday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 65 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 4:00 PM CST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 22:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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