tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 77 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Sunday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.3 over 23 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 9:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 02:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Sunday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~3.7 over 23 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.