Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Sunday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 12 cancellations among JFK departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.3 over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 16 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 16 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.2 over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 16 → 22 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~22.0 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 22 → 13 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.4 over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 13 → 20 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.0 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.