Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 14 cancellations among JFK departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.1 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 14 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.1 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 12 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.7 over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 16 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~15.8 over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?