tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay JFK departures

Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 52%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for JFK departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 41%

    What changed: 53% → 41% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 6.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 52%

    What changed: 41% → 52% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.