tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 77 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
7
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.6 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 9 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.6 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 9 → 11 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~11.2 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 11 → 30 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (42%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~29.5 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 30 → 6 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.3 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.2 over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 8:00 AM EST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 73 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~11.2 over 73 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.