Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 51%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday at 58%
What changed: 44% → 58% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 51%
What changed: 58% → 51% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?